CMC Markets专栏-乳品价格回暖，纽币能否止跌？

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2015-09-24 14:23:22 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

新西兰奶制品供给量新西兰恒天然乳业今日将其原奶采购价格由3.85纽币/千克提高至4.60纽币/千克。由于全球乳制品价格的下跌降低了生产成本，恒天然乳业作为世界最大的乳品出口商，截至7月31日，本年度税后净盈利达5.06亿纽币，与去年同期1.79亿纽币相比增长183%。由于乳制品价格长期低迷所导致的减产，自8月份以来，全球乳制品拍卖价格实现连续三次上涨，市场在经济供需与价格调整上真正发挥了其自身的调节作用。

乳制品价格的逐步回稳可能会给持续下滑的纽币带来一定的支撑作用，然而中国的货币贬值与全球经济形势仍然使得纽币难以在短期内摆脱低迷的现状。

技术形态上来看，纽币仍然形态较弱，很有可能继续下探，潜在下方目标可能在0.6080附近。但日线图上短期内可能出现一波回调，潜在目标0.6340附近。

日线图上看，纽币/美元在0.6440附近连续收到支持，昨日收一根柱体短小的下引线相比较长的竹子，类似止跌形态。日内可能受支持回调至保利加通道中轨附近的位置0.6340。

然而从月线图上看，纽币对美元距下方支持位置100.0%黄金延展线仍然有一段距离，由于上放空头力量仍看较强，纽币很有可能继续下探至此位置，潜在的目标可能在0.6080附近。

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