CMC Markets专栏: 美元强势是否从此开始？

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2015-11-05 08:01:12 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：M. Niu 文章类型：转载

昨日美联储耶伦再次发表证词表示目前美国经济表现健康态势，12月份加息有望，“国内消费力一直在健稳上行”，如果此数据能够持续表现良好，则12月份实现加息将很有可能。本次证词发言一改往日的保守态度与不确定性，反映出美联储对于12月份加息更加有信心。明显鹰派的的言论使得美国两年国期债收益率涨至0.82%，同时各大股市出现明显回撤，美元继续走强。

但也许美国经济事实并不是耶伦所述的那样完美，10月份ISM制造业采购经理人指数录得50.1, 第二次触及下半年低位，依旧受美元强势与能源价格下行影响, 美国制造业受到打压. 在18个领域调查中一半显示萎缩。昨日ADP非农业就业数据仅增长18.2万人口，是自6月份以来最低增长数量，这也是本周五即将公布的非农数据的参考；第三季度GDP仅增长1.5%，主要受美元强势导致的出口下滑与工厂库存量减少影响；9月份个人核心消费指数仅录得0.1%，长期无明显增长，差于预期0.2%。

然而市场似乎一直在有意忽视负面消息，近日美元走势再显强势，而美股也欣欣然的持续上行。也许对于投资者来讲，美国经济形势确实比起欧洲宽松、日本宽松、纽澳宽松、中国宽松的各方宽松显势鹰派。在其他各国纷纷降息、宽松的同时美国目前似乎已经到达经济转点，或者说是“黎明前的黑暗”，即将冲破迷雾的时刻。但如果美联储果真在12月份加息，市场是否再次继续之前的美元长期上行之势？也许未必，也许在投资者逐步对此消息消化之后，会找到制衡点做出投资组合的调整。所以此时的交易策略可能是观望为主，伺机而动。

本周的非农数据也许可以看到绝大多数投资大亨对于其方向的选择，根据大势而动始终是交易所应采用的良策。对于美元与美股来讲，盘面上都已经出现高位回撤的位置，如果本次非农数据不能够有突出表现，很可能会是冲高回落的行情。获利回吐也可能会使行情有高位回调出现，关于技术形态方面，下午的文章中会对典型的产品做些进一步探讨。

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