CMC Markets专栏: 美元高位回撤为何?

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2015-11-19 07:55:47 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载

今晨时间美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)10月份会议内容公布, 示意加息是否在12月份加息要依据对于经济形势的再次评估而定. 由于本次会议内容并没有如市场投资者所预期般鹰派的强硬，消息公布后，美元高位回撤，股市全线上扬.

本次会议内容是FOMC 10月28-29日货币政策会议内容的公开宣布, 在会议没有公开之前，10月份美国的非农业就业数据绝对好于预期的影响，使得投资者对于美联储的绝对鹰派态度-12月份加息-的预期十分肯定，自此美元再次大幅走强，10月份会议以来USD TWI 上涨2%。而本次会议内容并没有向绝大部分投资者所意想的那样强硬，使得投资者情绪与风险与回报比率关系发生变化，以至美元的高位回撤与股市的再次全面上扬。

以下内容为FOMC会议的结论之言，明确表示“美国联邦基金基准利率保持在现行的0%-0.25%的区间适中适宜劳动力市场与稳定物价的经济形势。对于决定是否在下次会议（12月份）实行加息，委员会将进行再次评估，评估标准将为是否美国经济形势对于最大化就业与2%的通货膨胀目标有足够信心的支持。”

“To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation… The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

另外，会议中还对于美国联邦基金短期基准利率与长期基准利率的实际利率水平做以讨论。指出，虽然短期利率水平自2008-2009年经济危机以来继续下滑，但基于现行基本面来考量，由于美国GDP并没有较大幅度的增长，说明其短期利率没有偏离制衡点的真实利率水平很多。而长期基准利率将会持恒保持在较低水平以保证就业市场最大化与2%通胀率的目标。美国加息进程将是一个系统化的财政政策, 是金融市场逐步恢复正常货币政策的稳定措施.

本次会议内容基本确定了美国经济已经稳步复苏, 加息势在必然，但时间上还有机会再作考量。对于前景远观，美国经济是在08年经济危机后超前美国、日本走出泥潭的国家，在美国即将计划实行货币政策逐步转由正常化的时刻，欧洲与日本仍然在宽松的进程中，而中国在经济转点之际给世界经济再添风险与机遇。短期来看，美元强势仍然会持续一定的时间，有可能至少到2016年年初的时节。

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