CMC Markets专栏: 中国货币政策"新常态"简单说
2015-11-25 08:01:35
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
自2014年开始风行的一个名词“货币政策新常态”始终为中国老百姓不是很了解，也不是很关心的经济术语。所谓“新”与“旧”相对，而“常态”与“非常态”相对。这里的“新”与“旧”指的是什么？而“常态”与“非常态”又指的是什么？
用简单的话来解释， “新”是指货币政策所依托的核心目标将有所改变，中国经济增长目标逐步由“数量型”向“价格型”转变；“数量型”主要是指以国内生产总值（GDP）为主要衡量经济的标准，“价格型”是指以通货膨胀率或者说是物价指数（CPI）为主要的经济增长衡量标准。“常态”是指这种以CPI为货币政策核心目标的经济增长模式将逐步替代过去以GDP为调解货币政策为主要核心目标的标准。
西方国家，如美国、日本、欧洲各国均以通货膨胀率为其货币政策的主要知道指标，即以稳定物价为基本的核心标准。主要是由于以国内生产总值为经济增长主要标准有可能会忽视本国货币的价值变化而不能真实反映出整体经济现状。从一个层面来讲，也可以说GDP 构成核心中是以生产为主导性经济增长模式的体现，比如说房地产开发或者基础设施建设；而CPI是以消费为主导性经济增长模式的标准，这里主要体现在使用金融体系的杠杆儿作用来引导与推动经济增长。
2014年11月份席近平总书记就在欧派克APEC峰会上明确指出了新常态的基本特征：“从高速增长转为中高速增长，经济结构不断优化升级，从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动”。中国央行自2014年以来数次的降息、降准的双将政策，一是加大资金流动性，二是引导消费，以此来逐步达到一个生产与消费的新的制衡点。这也是本次十三五计划中的一个重点，即产业结构优化升级以使经济增长模式达到一个“新常态”。而中国2015年第三季度GDP增长6.9%的结构中显示，第三产业服务业尤其是金融行业占比明显增加，工业生产比重明显萎缩，也是我国经济结构体系转型的一个征兆。
传统的货币政策目标是以经济增长、价格稳定、充分就业、国际收支为标准。在以上的讨论中我们可能忽视了就业与国际收支。就业率方面我国始终保持较为强劲的状态，同时也与社保与医疗及其他各方面福利政策相联系，我国整体福利政策还不能够满足如西方国家的自然失业。
而在国际收支平衡上，由于中国劳动力成本的逐步增加与全球经济增长的放缓，中国很可能逐步缩减顺差额度。人民币依旧面临持续下行的压力，由于美联储的加息预期，使得央行可能为盘活经济与避免资产大量外流风险会再次实行降息。中国出口商品的结构会需要转型升级，以基本的制造业产品向高科技产品进行转型靠拢，而这也是中国经济的“新常态”的又一特点。
如有更多问题，欢迎致电：
澳大利亚免费中文电话：1300 668 268
访问中文网站，了解更多信息
Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
相关阅读
免责声明：本网站信息仅供一般参考，不构成投资或财务建议。虽力求准确与完整，但不保证信息的准确性、完整性或时效性。投资有风险，决策前请咨询专业独立顾问。使用本网站即视为接受本免责声明。
热门点击
本周本月
-
- 【澳股聚焦】ASX年内涨幅归零之后 市场在等待什么?
-
- 【异动股周报】NMD首秀飙升 DAL见矿翻番 ALV单日飙200% 资源与生物科技双线爆发
-
- 【异动股】Image Resources(ASX:IMA) : 一家市值3千万的澳洲矿企 手里捏着龙佰集团最想要的下一座矿
-
- 中国资本vs澳洲关键矿产博弈观察：兴业银锡与两家ASX小盘勘探股的“恩怨情仇”
-
- 【10.13】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 嘉能可登陆澳交所 三巨头鼎立时代开启 ASX铜矿标的稀缺格局迎破局者
-
- 【10.14】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- [更新]【10.15】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 【10.12】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 【异动股】从沉寂到爆量：SKK（ASX:SKK）的信任生意 正在盘口里被重新定价
-
- AI热潮的首次集体迟疑：Firmus折戟与AirTrunk搁浅 一周之内两次警示
-
- 2026年IMARC矿业大会悉尼之约 澳大利亚矿业技术与创新力量的全球汇聚
-
- 液冷数据中心开发商Firmus澳交所上市在即 揽获OpenAI合同大单
-
- 新州反对党推动工资税减免立法 起征门槛拟提高至150万澳元 中小企业税率拟降至4.75%
-
- 澳储行纪要：15年利率新高背后 澳洲通胀的“内因”正在扩大