CMC Markets专栏: 乳价增幅偏低, 纽币又显跌势
2015-12-16 07:56:26
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
今日凌晨的全球乳制品拍卖中，乳制品均价为2458美元/公吨，较前次仅上涨1.9%，远差于市场预期的5%-10%。失望的数据使得纽币在近期的高位迅速回落，纽币对 美元由数据公布之前的0.68附近一度下滑近60余点至0.6742后回调，截止新西兰时间8点30分，其汇率运行于0.6758附近。
在本次拍卖价格中，全脂奶粉的价格增长1.8%至2304美元/公吨， 仍然距离理想价位3000美元/公吨有很大的距离。其价格由今年2月份最高均价3272美元/公吨，跌至8月份最低1590美元/公吨，有10月份出现反弹至2824美元/公吨，后又持续走低。3000美元是新西兰恒天然乳业固体奶在本年底至明年初预期收购价格4.6纽币/千克的价格支撑，而DairyNZ的最新调查绝大多数奶农的理想价格是5.4纽币/千克，这使得新西兰奶农的收益更让人担忧。
本次全球乳制品拍卖情况
全球乳制品10年价格指数走势
数据来源：Globledairytrade
驻芝加哥的乳品专家Jon Spainhour表示，在恒天然乳业逐步减产的情况下，本次的乳品拍卖结果对市场也许是一个熊市的信号。由于价格并没有因为减产而有明显的改善。他说道：“在过去，这（减产）将 引起市场更大的反应”。价格难以回升，仍旧是由于欧洲乳品生产量增加。他相信欧洲正逐步抢占美国与新西兰的买方市场，使得市场更加饱和。
上周，恒天然乳业将未来12个月的全脂奶粉产量缩减了3.763公吨，削减幅度达9.7%。这也使得年度全球乳制品产量降至35.2万公吨，是5年来低位。本次如制品价格的上涨幅度让人失望，市场前景不为乐观。纽币在近期有持续走高迹象，但昨日由于乳制品价格不及预期出现高位回落。同时，明天将有市场瞩目已久的美国联邦公开市场委员会的议息会议，美国加息可能短期内进一步推高美元，加之新西兰央行上周的下调利率，也许纽币将迎来又一波跌势。
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