CMC Markets专栏:纽币新一轮跌势蓄势待发
2015-12-30 12:21:56
来源：《澳华财经在线》
编辑：S.Li 文章类型：转载
纽币在新西兰央行近期再次下调官方利率后未跌反涨，主要是由于投资者对于风险与回报比例的考虑而买涨纽币所致。然而新西兰央行降息是其货币宽松的事实，而虽然美联储加息后，美元反而有所回撤，但在大势所趋的形势下，美元仍然显示有再次走强的迹象。由于基本面上并无支持纽币继续上涨的强有力理由，在技术形态遇阻时，纽币可能会打开新一轮的跌势。
在之前的文章中提及过纽币下行的风险，潜在的回调位置可能为0.6600附近，我们仍然对于此短期回调的位置保持一致。而中长期来看，由于美联储明年可能进行4次加息，如果美元再次持续上行，则纽币对美元有可能会跌破9月份低点0.6260而挑战下方更低的位置0.6080附近。
日线图中，在上升楔形中整理数日，近日终于出现了多头力竭的形态，上方的潜在阻力位置仍看0.6900附近，下方的潜在空头目标可能为0.6600附近61.8%黄金分割线回荡线左右。
月线图中，纽币/美元可能在试探0.6900附近的阻力位置（黄金分割延展线50.0%回荡线附近），结合日线图形态，如果此位置出现回撤，则可能延续其下降趋势线继续下行，而下方的100.0%位置0.6080可能是中长期的潜在空头目标。但空头要注意上方的潜在阻力位置一旦被突破则可能打开上行空间，所以0.6900附近也可能是潜在的止损位置。
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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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