CMC Markets专栏: 原油有望短期回撤

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2015-10-13 10:57:59 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

美国得克萨斯原油昨日出现较大程度的回撤，下跌2.19美元，目前运行于47.36附近的支持位置。在技术形态上出现明显的下行迹象，有可能再次试探近期支持位置43美元附近, 长期走势仍然不排除有继续上行的挑战57美元的可能。基本面上看是由于美联储仍然表示年底有望加息，市场投资风险偏好降低，测向避险而至。

技术形态：

日线图

日线图上显示，美国得克萨斯原油在上周五收潜在的顶部十字星紧跟昨日一根肢体较长的阴柱，形成潜在的空头信号，加之技术指标MACD与Stoch均显示有下行迹象，美油有可能在此继续向下回撤，回撤位置有可能在46.40（黄金分割线38.2%），然后是43美元附近（黄金分割线23.6%）。

月线图

在长期图形月线图上看，美油仍然显示较强的上行趋势，在8月份形成强势的买入形态后，连续近两个月在43美元附近受到支持，并最高上破50美元。加之随即震荡技术指标MACD与Stoch仍然显示在超卖区向上反弹的迹象，得克萨斯原油很可能在再次站稳43美元后继续挑战上方更高的阻力位置57美元附近。

基本面方面：

欧派克国家预测美国将在2016年减产，这将是自2008年以来美国第一次减少原油产量。据预测，美国石油产量预期减产28万桶/日至13.538百万桶/日。此外，美国能源信息管理部门也称美国原油产量将由平均920万桶/日减至890万桶/日。之前原油价格的持续下行，欧派克国家为抢占市场份额继续增加产出，生产成分的提高与受益的下降迫使美国减产原油，欧派克国家也可能随后为提高油价而减产，整体产出的下降会导致整体原油价格再次上涨。

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