CMC Markets专栏: 新西兰央行可能会进一步宽松

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2015-10-14 07:20:36 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

新西兰时间晨时9点10分新西兰央行行长Graeme Wheeler在新西兰金融专家研究所的年度讲话上表示进一步的货币宽松政策将有可能,并将依据未来的经济数据而定。讲话后,纽币顺势下滑,纽币对美元在讲话之时迅速滑落50余点,最低触及0.6618,随后后反弹。截止本文撰写时间运行于0.6649附近。

Wheeler指出, 根据通胀率目标政策体系, 央行政策始终以通胀率2%的目标为中心. 近期是的经济指标有好转迹象. 对于官方利率的进一步下调将有可能, 但要以未来的经济数据而定. 同时, 要保持低利率对于房市影响的警惕性, 购房需求可能会在低利率影响下升高而推涨房价. 借贷成本对于投资行为的影响是另一个重要方面, 全球经济的明显放缓可能需要更加有效的利率下调来支持, 从而提高生产能力。

新西兰现行利率为2.75%, 自6月份以来, 新西兰央行进行了3次官方利率的下调, 每次下调幅度均未25个百分点. 主要受乳制品价格持续下跌与中国经济增速放缓影响.纽币自4月份以来持续下跌千余点, 对美元汇率由0.7740滑落至9月份最低点0.6249. 由于乳制品价格逐步回暖与美国暂时取消加息, 纽币9月份以来出现反弹行情, 现行于0.66以上.

新西兰官方利率(OCR)变化

数据来源: 新西兰央行

根据ANZ银行预测, 新西兰央行将在2016年9月份将官方利率调低至2.50%, 2016年第三季度居民消费物价指数将为1.9%. 新西兰是以商品出口为主要经济支撑的国家, 直接受到全球经济形势影响, 尤其为其最大的贸易合作伙伴中国影响. 昨日中国公布的9月份贸易数据显示其进口额大幅下降17.7%, 是中国连续11个月出现负值. 次数据给商品货币如纽币, 澳币走势再次施压。

近日新西兰时间下午2点30分(澳大利亚时间11点30分)将有中国9月份居民消费物价指数公布, 将会给全球经济走势给出暂时性指标信号。

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