CMC Markets专栏:沙特宣称救市,原油跌势暂停！

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2015-11-24 08:04:17 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载

沙特阿拉伯称将与欧派克国家与其他产油国联合做出努力以稳定全球原油市场，消息公布后，纽约商品交易所美国得克萨斯原油期货价格出现大幅反弹，由当日下跌3.6%急转直上反弹1.34美元，截止撰写本文时间，其价格回落至41.81美元。英国布伦特原油期货价格由同样由昨日低点43.60美元反弹至最高45.70美元后回落至44.96美元。

美国得克萨斯原油价格在上一周在41美元附近逐步有筑底迹象，空头看似已经止住步伐。而昨日的双边震荡一是由于沙特的利好消息出台，再次可能是由于空头力竭，多头补进所致。

昨日纽约商品交易所得克萨斯原油走势（小时）

昨日纽约商品交易所得克萨斯原油走势（年）

数据来源：布伦伯格

受原油价格反弹影响，昨日能源性大宗商品价格均有大幅反弹，纽约商品交易所汽油期货价格上涨2.34%，天然气价格上涨2.84%。

虽说昨日沙特的表态是利好的消息，然而还并没有对市场供大于求的现状有实质上的改变。空头呼声此时仍然强烈，一是由于主体市场对中国经济形势的紧张，虽说不排除有过度反应的可能，但中国需求放缓还是实际情况；二是美联储加息而美元再度走强的考虑，大宗商品有如此急流之下的跌势，对于其计价货币美元的疯长是真理性的逻辑。道理很简单，持有其他货币对于买家来讲其成本太高。

美元指数与贵金属价格指数、原油价格指数走势

数据来源：布伦伯格

与此同时，贵金属类大宗商品价格依旧持续跌势，昨日纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格下跌0.77%，铜价再次下滑1.09%，均以触及6年地位。

由于美联储加息预期与中国的转型还未有明朗规划的现阶段，大宗商品价格的反弹的真正时期还未到来，但鉴于似乎一切已经触及底部，或者说坏到不能再坏的地步，这也是一切明朗之前的最黑暗时期。美联储成员在10月份会议中已经明确表明其将循序渐进的慢慢的加息，这个口径带来的信号是美元也许不会再强到无法控制；而中国的转轨如果步入稳则会逐步祛除全球需求的担忧；欧洲方面昨日各主要10月份国家制造业PMI数据均显示乐观迹象。一些这样的迹象表明，未来转点不会太远。

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Tags: 原油