CMC Markets专栏: 原油触底反弹,领涨全球股市
2015-12-24 08:20:41
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
圣诞与新年到来之际, 市场似乎也在节日的气氛中给投资者带来欣喜. 原油价格终于在持续下行后, 昨日出现大幅反弹迹象, 引领全球股市全线上涨. 截至北京时间晨时3点47分, 纽约商品交易所2月份原油期货价格较前日上涨1.43美元,至37.57美元/桶; 伦敦商品交易所英国布伦特原油价格上涨1.38美元至37.48美元/桶. 在美国市场圣诞假期前的最后一个全日交易日, 原油的大幅反弹给市场带来节日的生机.
美国商品交易所2月份原油期货价格走势
资料来源：布伦伯格
昨日,全球股市在原油价格反弹的影响下全线上涨, 截至北京时间晨时4点钟, 美国道琼斯指数上涨1.02%, 178点至17594.86点; 美国标普指数500上涨1.21%至2063.58点; 欧洲斯托克指数50上涨2.25%至3286.68; 德国指数30收涨2.28%至10727.64; 香港恒生指数上涨0.96%至22040.59; 澳指200上涨0.49%至5141.78.
原油与全球股市的大幅反弹，显示市场似乎已经消化了对于美联储加息负面影响的担忧, 而乐观以对其积极的一面. 加息意味着货币政策逐步进入正常化, 给全球经济好转带来信心.
昨日全球主要各大股指走势
资料来源: 布伦伯格
一些交易员表示, 假期前夕交易数量大量减少可能会导致市场震荡扩大. 美国UBS财富管理高级股市策论分析师David Lefkowitz表示:”大宗商品的大幅反弹在一些市场分支中占有比重而影响市场走势”,”(大宗商品)小幅缓压会给市场带来(较以往)更大的推进力量”. 周三的一些最大的赢家是在近几周被影响最大行业. 例如, 标普指数500中的能源股本月跌幅达8%，但在昨日反弹3.5%；材料股本月下跌3%，昨日上涨2%。
推涨原油价格的另一个原因可能是由于美国的原油库存量减少而致。据美国能源信息管理局统计数据， 截至12月份18日的一周，美国原油储量下跌590万桶。另一个美国汽油机构的原油库存量价下跌360万桶。
从昨日行情来看， 原油价格出现反涨，一方面是由于基本面利好消息所致，另一方面从技术图表上看，原油近日有筑底的迹象，我在以前的文章中有提及美原油的潜在买涨区间可能在34-37美元附近，这是技术形态上看到的。下午的文章中会对原油再做进一步探讨。
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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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