CMC Markets专栏: 原油触底反弹,领涨全球股市
2015-12-24 08:20:41
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
圣诞与新年到来之际, 市场似乎也在节日的气氛中给投资者带来欣喜. 原油价格终于在持续下行后, 昨日出现大幅反弹迹象, 引领全球股市全线上涨. 截至北京时间晨时3点47分, 纽约商品交易所2月份原油期货价格较前日上涨1.43美元,至37.57美元/桶; 伦敦商品交易所英国布伦特原油价格上涨1.38美元至37.48美元/桶. 在美国市场圣诞假期前的最后一个全日交易日, 原油的大幅反弹给市场带来节日的生机.
美国商品交易所2月份原油期货价格走势
资料来源：布伦伯格
昨日,全球股市在原油价格反弹的影响下全线上涨, 截至北京时间晨时4点钟, 美国道琼斯指数上涨1.02%, 178点至17594.86点; 美国标普指数500上涨1.21%至2063.58点; 欧洲斯托克指数50上涨2.25%至3286.68; 德国指数30收涨2.28%至10727.64; 香港恒生指数上涨0.96%至22040.59; 澳指200上涨0.49%至5141.78.
原油与全球股市的大幅反弹，显示市场似乎已经消化了对于美联储加息负面影响的担忧, 而乐观以对其积极的一面. 加息意味着货币政策逐步进入正常化, 给全球经济好转带来信心.
昨日全球主要各大股指走势
资料来源: 布伦伯格
一些交易员表示, 假期前夕交易数量大量减少可能会导致市场震荡扩大. 美国UBS财富管理高级股市策论分析师David Lefkowitz表示:”大宗商品的大幅反弹在一些市场分支中占有比重而影响市场走势”,”(大宗商品)小幅缓压会给市场带来(较以往)更大的推进力量”. 周三的一些最大的赢家是在近几周被影响最大行业. 例如, 标普指数500中的能源股本月跌幅达8%，但在昨日反弹3.5%；材料股本月下跌3%，昨日上涨2%。
推涨原油价格的另一个原因可能是由于美国的原油库存量减少而致。据美国能源信息管理局统计数据， 截至12月份18日的一周，美国原油储量下跌590万桶。另一个美国汽油机构的原油库存量价下跌360万桶。
从昨日行情来看， 原油价格出现反涨，一方面是由于基本面利好消息所致，另一方面从技术图表上看，原油近日有筑底的迹象，我在以前的文章中有提及美原油的潜在买涨区间可能在34-37美元附近，这是技术形态上看到的。下午的文章中会对原油再做进一步探讨。
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