CMC Markets专栏：经济学家与交易员并无根本分歧-从美国加息预期谈到的‏

对于美联储是否在9月16-17日的会议上实行加息，布伦伯格对78位经济学家进行调查，38位经济学家坚持认为美联储下周会加息。然而目前货币市场的反应看来并不能够充分说明这一点，美元指数9月份与12月份远期合约持续下滑6日，市场并不买美元的账。纽约满地可银行资本市场利率分析师Aaron Kohli表示“大部分投资者认为美国会直道明年才会采取加息行动，这是市场不支持加息反应的原因。”这引发了一个老生常谈的问题：交易员为何与经济学家具有差异？

                 布伦伯格对于美联储加息调查表

实际上两者并无本质上的差异，只是理论导向与实践行动的相互关系。经济学家与交易员获得同一样的经济分析数据，在对于经济形势上的判断趋同，经济学家会在总体趋势上有得出决定性的方向指导作用，而交易员会在市场反应上会更加敏感与把握时间的精准，这就是交易行为中基本面分析与技术面分析的根本所在。许多人认为经济学家并无交易员对于市场把握更加准确，这是因为理论是基于实践总结出来，又指导未来实践的东西。拿美国是否本月会加息来做例子，经济学家站在良性发展经济的角度来分析，认为“加息”是势在必行，但在具体的这一历史时间点上，交易员的实践行动为由于其他情况而出现羁绊，比如说中国的货币贬值与大宗商品价格的下滑。

投资者应该如何在意见分歧中找到指导性方向？笔者认为应该在把握决定性经济形势的原则上，根据技术面给出的时机信号来把握投资的方向与时机。方向由基本面决定，而时机则有技术面决定。



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