昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前值再次上涨16.5%，自8月份以来连续三次上涨，创自2010年9月份以来最大涨幅。乳制品平均价格达2568美元/公吨。其中，全脂奶粉价格达2495美元/公吨，涨幅20.6%，创自4月份以来新高，相比8月15日最低价格1590美元/公吨上涨56.9%。并且，全脂奶粉2016年3月份远期合约价格以2680纽币/公吨成交，比前次上涨26.5%。此次的乳制品价格大幅上涨给新西兰经济再次带来积极的信心，纽币对美元在消息公布以后急速攀升70点至0.6368。
 
全脂奶粉价格走势

 
 
全球乳制品拍卖价格指数变化（%）
 
 

全球乳制品10年价格指数


 
数据来源：Globaldairytrade
 
 
 
此次价格的上涨亦借助于乳品供给量的削减，全脂奶粉供给较前次削减5%，环比下降43%。澳纽（ANZ）银行在拍卖后评论指出，乳制品拍卖市场有可能会受到季度性尼诺气候的影响而存在风险。除此之外，由于奶牛数量的减少与牧场管理结构的变化，乳制品供给量有望减产5%或更多。新西兰恒天然乳业在8月份将固体乳制品收购价格由5.23纽币/千克下调至3.85纽币/千克。连续三次拍卖的利好态势使得全脂奶粉价格有望在明年实现3000美元/公吨的预期。
 
澳纽（ANZ）银行预测恒天然乳业乳制品收购价格会上涨至4.25纽币/千克-4.50纽币/千克的区间。



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