CMC Markets专栏-香港恒生指数有望继续下行

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2015-09-23 11:19:36 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

中国9月份财新制造业采购经理人价格指数（PMI）初值录得47.0, 差于预期值47.5，差于8月份初值47.1，差于8月份终值47.3。中国财新制造业PMI连续6个月低于50盛衰线以下，此次数值创自2009年3月份以来新低。中国制造业下行压力继续呈压。香港恒生指数受中国经济直接影响，继续呈下行状态，从技术形态上看，有望短期内继续探底前低20000点附近的位置，此位置是至关重要的支持位置，如果能够受到有效支撑，则恒生指数仍然有可能在22270-20000的区间调整；但如果突破20000点下行，则下方潜在的空头目标可能在18350附近。

如下图所示，日线图中恒生指数近日开盘已经出现向下突破保利加通道中轨的位置，很有可能向下突破再次挑战前低20000点附近。月线图中同样能看到，如果从2009年3月份低点到2015年4月份高点拉伸向上黄金分割线，则很明显看到近期调整的区间正好与本月恒生指数运行区间稳和20000（50.0%）-22270（38.2%）。受基本面经济形势下行压力，恒生指数有可能下行突破此区间，向下测试另一潜在支持位置18350附近的位置。

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