CMC Markets专栏: 道指仍在艰难旅程中
2015-10-07 10:07:53
来源:CMC Markets
编辑:Max 文章类型:转载
美国道琼斯指数在今年8月份路遇险境,一度在一日之内滑落过千点,究其原因是市场对于潜在泡沫经济与产能过剩的修正反映。随大宗商品价格逐步回稳反弹与美国取消9月份加息决议后,全球股市渐进回稳,美指逐步反弹。
然而全球经济仍然处于调整时期,距离走出阴霾而实现增长的正常轨道还需要较长时间来准备。各国潜在的债务危机与相对产能过剩仍然是面临的主要问题。以最具有代表性意义的美国道琼斯指数为例,可以看出的是道指仍然在艰难的旅程中,并没有短期内突破之迹象。
然而全球经济仍然处于调整时期,距离走出阴霾而实现增长的正常轨道还需要较长时间来准备。各国潜在的债务危机与相对产能过剩仍然是面临的主要问题。以最具有代表性意义的美国道琼斯指数为例,可以看出的是道指仍然在艰难的旅程中,并没有短期内突破之迹象。
结合技术形态上看,导致处于16000点与17000点的区间整理行情中已经有近一个月的时间,其分别在8月28日与9月17日做出整理区间顶部的形态,此顶部价位在16800-17000附近区间,昨日道指再次形成类似区间顶部的信号,收一根短小近似于十字星的形态。而且此位置 也是日线图保力加通道上轨位置,有很大的可能性在此位置再次受阻下行继续其通道间(16000-17000)整理态势。


结合长期图形月线图,16000与17000之间的区间恰和与黄金分割线38.2%与23.6%回荡线的位置吻合,再一次说明此区间将为道指潜在的短期整理区间。长期形态上看,道指仍然显弱势下行可能性较大,可能会突破此区间继续向下修正。



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