CMC Markets专栏: 美国工厂制造业整体萎缩

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2015-10-16 07:15:05 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

昨日录得的美国两项10月份制造业数据显示萎缩, 使得市场对于美国经济增长前景产生怀疑. 10月份纽约联储制造业指数录得-11.4, 差于预期-7.3, 是继8月份以来连续3个月低于基准值0以下; 另外, 美国-费城联储制造业指数录得-4.5, 差于预期-1.8. 连续两个月呈现负值. 美国近期制造业的萎缩主要是由于美元强势而使得制造业产品在国际市场上竞争力减弱而致.

周三美联储褐皮书(The Fed Reserve’s Beige Book)公布的消息显示，自8月中旬至10月份以来，美国旧金山列治文区与芝加哥地区-12个行政区中的两个区-经济增长放缓，密苏里州也显示增长轻度下滑。报告显示由于美元在此期间的再次走强，使得8月份中旬至10月份美国工厂制造业受到明显影响。另外，美国9月份ISM制造业指数由8月份的58.1%下落至50.2%，美国整体制造业萎缩现象已经成为全行业现状。

美联储褐皮书是美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在利率决策会议前两周公布的一份有关美国12个行政区经济情况的报告，内容包括消费支出、制造业、房地产及就业市场等各方面的情况。将有可能影响美联储成员对于利率走向的决定。绝大多数经济学家表示，美联储将在10月份的利率会议上保持联邦利息率不变。并且2015年计息也几尽无望。

同时，褐皮书中显示美国房地产市场与金融服务市场是表现良好的两项板块；然而消费水平（除机动车销售）显示温和上涨；工资增长水平“大多偏淡”，尤其是纽约与旧金山最为明显。物价水平较为平稳。

昨日由于金融板块股票的上涨引领美股再次上浮，摆脱了连续两天的下滑。美国标普指数500涨幅1.49%，收盘2323.86，得到新的喘息之际。然而美国整体经济形势明显表明实业生产的萎缩与居民消费水平持续增长放缓。当股市的上涨主要受金融服务业支撑的时候，是否可以表明经济向泡沫的逐步演化？美国10年期国债昨日在跌破5月新低2%有今日反弹至2.02%。经济持续放缓形势使得美联储始终难以实现政策收紧。然而，正是此种恶性循环将引发债务新危机的状况越演越烈。

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