CMC Markets专栏: 澳指200短期可能回落

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2015-10-20 10:35:09 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

澳联储今日公布了10月6日议息会议内容记录，其表示虽然在第二季度GDP增长较低，但是当前澳洲经济在预期以内温和增长。第三季度有望较前一季度好转。

但对于中国与东亚地区经济增速的放缓仍然需要加以考虑，昨日中国公布的第三季度GDP增速首次下破7%，主要受重工业，如炼钢业等工业生产下降的影响，将直接影响到澳大利亚矿产业出口。澳联储表示澳大利亚矿产业预期在未来的几年中仍会处于低迷期。

亚洲股市近两日出现小幅下行，澳大利亚指数200出现类似情况。从技术形态上看，澳指200可能受短期阻力下行，潜在下行目标可能为5000点整数位置。长期技术图形上，虽然显示其仍然在上升趋势线以上运行，但短期内难以突破区间整理。

技术图形

日线图/月线图

日线图（左图）显示在短期的趋势中，澳指200在近期顶部近5300附近的位置受阻，周五与昨日连续两日收短小柱线，表明上升动能明显不足，同时技术指标Stoch也显示在超买区域有潜在的死叉出现。澳指200很可能会受阻下行，回落潜在目标收看保利加通道中轨附近位置5140，然后是保利加通道下轨位置5000点整数位附近。

月线图（右图）显示澳指200仍然在一个长期上升趋势中运行，然而可以看到8月份大跌后，连续近两个月一直在低位盘整，始终无法突破上方5400阻力位置的空间。结合国际经济形势，澳指200有可能在4800至5400的空间调整运行的区间，这个时间跨度有可能至少会持续到2015年底。

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