CMC Markets专栏: 欧洲央行或扩大宽松, 欧元大跌

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2015-10-23 07:09:46 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

昨日欧洲央行行长德拉吉在新闻发布会上示意由于对新兴市场与大宗商品下行风险的担忧，将有可能在12月份重新对QE进行测试，市场视其为鸽派言论，认为这表明欧洲央行将在12月份加大货币宽松。欧元对美元顺势大跌250点至1.11附近。欧洲央行的扩大宽松信号再次激发投资者对于风险资产的投资偏好，全球股市全线上涨。美国标普指数500上涨1.2%，自今天8月份大跌以来上浮10%。欧洲股市创两月新高，德指一日涨幅2.48%。

欧元对美元在讲话期间下滑200余点

昨日欧洲央行将官方利息率保持在0.05%不变，但在德拉吉在讲话中表示将在12月份对于QE再次作出调整，市场认为这是德拉吉对于进一步扩大宽松的明确示意，认为欧洲央行将在12月份再次扩大资产购买与下调存款利率至0以下更大程度，欧洲现行的存款利率为-0.2%。

德拉吉表示欧洲央行的宽松货币政策自2014年6月份以来有效促进了增长，对于欧洲地区的企业借贷与居民消费起到支持作用。1月份宣布的信贷宽松对于恢复生产与实现通胀目标有很大必要。对于是否进一步扩大宽松欧洲央行将在12月份根据经济形势对于其货币政策再次检验以实行可持续的货币政策。欧洲各银行可能需要对于货币宽松的数量、组成、设计等全面进行改革。

由于全球经济下滑风险始终存在，通胀率前景并不乐观。短期通胀率预期仍会下滑，但对于中长期前景已经逐步改善，基本与9月份预期一致。目前的通胀率在移除原油价格因素外为0.9%，与2%的通胀目标有较大差距。欧洲央行的QE水平现为600亿欧元的资产购买量，此计划将至少持续到2016年9月份。此次会议很可能暗示对于QE的宽松将进一步扩大，欧洲央行将寻求更多的资产购买项目。

欧元区货币状况指数MCI（ Monetary Conditions Index）

资料来源：欧盟委员会

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