CMC Markets专栏: 浅析美联储会议前市场各方面

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2015-10-28 07:55:19 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

明日将迎来美联储议息会议内容的公布，美联储官员一致坚持加息仍然在其进程中，表示年底前有望按照其计划实行加息。但是市场各方面现状却不容乐观，使得大部分投资者认为本次会议加息可能性近乎为零。美联储本次会议不预加息的支持观点有以下几方面：

美国制造业日显萎缩。美国两项10月份制造业数据显示萎缩, 10月份纽约联储制造业指数录得-11.4, 是继8月份以来连续3个月低于基准值0以下; 另外, 美国-费城联储制造业指数录得-4.5, 连续两个月呈现负值. 其原因主要是由于美元强势而使得制造业产品在国际市场上竞争力减弱而致. 此外，昨日公布的美国9月份耐用品订单数量录得-1.2%连续两个月呈现下滑。

能源性大宗商品价格再次呈现大幅走低，美国通胀率或将继续呈压。美国得克萨斯原油价格本月再次呈现大幅下滑，截至今日月跌幅达3.70%，昨日一度跌破43美元后反弹至43.42美元；纽约商品交易所天然气价格本月跌幅达16.52%。美国9月份居民消费价格指数CPI出现负增长，录得-0.2%，距2%的通胀率目标相差甚远，这主要受能源性商品价格低迷影响。

能源性大宗商品价格走势

数据来源：布伦伯格

中国经济增长放缓，央行再次实行降息、降准。中国第三季度GDP录得6.9%，首次跌落7%，为刺激经济增长上个周末中国再次调低存贷款利率，并将中央银行存款准备金率再次调降(RRR)50个基点。将贷款利率调降至4.35%, 同时将一年存款利率由1.75%至1.5%，为一年之内第六次降准。此次双降将释放7千亿到8千亿人民币的资金流动量。中国的经济现状与宽松政策可能会对全球经济尤其是新兴市场经济风险提起预警，美国加息有可能会加大新兴市场金融风险，此时加息未必为良策。

欧洲央行预期进一步扩大宽松。行长德拉吉在上周的新闻发布会上表示将在12月份对其货币政策再次评估，预示有可能进一步加大资产购买力度和调整其他一系列货币措施。讲话后欧元对美元大幅下跌，美元的被迫走强会将给经济增长再次施压，在美国制造业等生产力呈现萎缩的情况下，加息会使得美元继续走强而影响国内生产力。

日本央行会适机扩大宽松。本周五将迎来日本央行的新闻发布会，市场预期为其将适机继续扩大货币宽松。日本就业市场持续收紧，如果美国不予加息则日本央行可能会将采取扩大货币宽松。日本经济学家Koichi Hmada会重点关注美联储加息决议而做决定。

以上主要国家与各方面经济形势使得明日美联储加息决议的可能性降低几乎为零。明日的另一个重磅时间将为新西兰央行议息决议及新闻发布会，届时可能会给纽币走势带来更多信号。市场绝大部分人与其新西兰将保持其官方利息率不变。

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