CMC Markets专栏: 今日看: 美国GDP与日本议息

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2015-10-30 07:13:46 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

昨日美联储议息会议中示意有可能在12 月份加息，消息公布后市场出现较大波动行情，美元走强，股市上涨。昨日美盘时间美元与股市出现轻度回撤，欧元、英镑、纽币均出现反弹迹象；各大股市也有轻度跌幅，美国标普500指数下跌0.04%，英国富实指数下滑0.65%；尤其澳指受woolworths市值下滑出现较大程度跌幅-1.28%。今日的两大看点将是昨日美国公布的第三季度GDP与日本央行的议息会议：

美国第三季度GDP下滑

昨日美国第三季度GDP第二次估值录得1.5%，稍差于预期1.6%，较第二季度GDP增长3.9%有较大滑落。根据美国经济分析统计部门数据，美国GDP增长放缓主要是由于私营部门减少库存量与出口将少影响。而其中个人消费、政府部门消费、出口与居民固定投资对库存量的负面影响有所抵消。本次GDP数据为第三季度第二次估值，最终GDP将在11月份24公布。

虽然GDP并不是美国加息的主要影响因素之一，但从侧面反映了由于美元强势影响出口下滑是本次GDP增长放缓的主要因素。

日本央行议息会议

在美联储示意可能12月份加息后，今日日本的货币政策会议将成为更加敏感的关注点。今日将迎来又一大经济体日本央行经济展望报告与日本货币政策导向。根据路透社消息称，虽然日本通胀率难以达标，但日本央行仍可能会保持其货币政策不变，继续其每年80万亿日元（6630亿美元）的购买。然而据同统计分析，对于是否日本央行会出其以外再度扩大货币宽松，在统计调查的经济学家中对此意见分化。

日本央行官方称，目前经济形势比去年同期改善很多，大多数日本公司表示可以提高其物价水平。日本10月份工厂生产增长1%，在两月出现负增长后终于见好转，主要受到美国汽车与化妆品进口的需求支撑，部分抵消了中国下滑的大机器进口需求。

日本央行很可能对于其经济形势保持乐观态度而暂时保持其货币政策不变。从昨日美日货币对盘面分析，很可能美元与日元仍然短期在横盘调整。如果日本央行保持其政策不变，则美元有可能对日元回撤下行。

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