CMC Markets专栏: 非农重头戏本将怎样上演?

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2015-11-06 07:40:35 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：M. Niu 文章类型：转载

今夜的非农可以说是可能是市场之转点的重头戏，美联储呼喊加息已经有一年有余之久，而昨日耶伦终于吐露较为明确的态度给出下个月加息的极大可能性-“live possiblity”。

美国两年期国债收益率冲至4年高位0.83%，美元继续冲高，黄金、原油等大宗商品再度跳水，美股市场高位受阻…市场似乎已经在对非农做出提前反应。但本次非农这场重头戏到底会如何登场？我们可以从以下几方面进行探讨：

美国10月份非农未必乐观

可以肯定说，美国当前就业市场整体情况表现良好，失业率一直稳定改善，目前有望在迈进5%的目标。而对于美国近期的非农业就业市场人数增速却明显放缓，10月份非农业就业增长人数的预期是17.9万人，也是自2014年8月份以来预期值最低的一次，反应了美国的当前就业形势并不是特别乐观。9月份是在2014年9月份以来最差数据14.2万人，本周的ADP数据仅增18.2万人，创自6月份以来新低。昨日公布的申请救济金人数创5周新高，远差于预期的26.3万，看上去各种信号都在暗示本次非农数据不会乐观。

中国经济转型对国际经济的制衡作用

而此时也许另一个具有影响力的事件也许会被人忽视，那就是中国股市近两日的劲猛牛市的显现。由于中国开放“深港通”与十三五计划的影响，股市得到利好刺激出现牛市反弹，中国沪指两日涨幅达5.9%。中国经济转型与深入向国际市场的迈进会是对国际经济大国起到举足轻重的制衡作用。在如此敏感的时刻，美国加息可能会影响其在国际竞争中的影响力。同时，中国很有可能在明年即将加入SDR，人民币将成为国际储备货币而对全球经济起到更大的影响力。同时如果美元继续无终结的走强，欧元与日元再度大幅下滑可能会导致国际经济贸易的失衡而使得美元处于孤立位置。

本次非农很可能会是“虚惊一场”，在之前的文章中也有提及，盘面上看各种形态表现有高位受阻于低位支撑的迹象，美元/日元持续上行，但显示头日渐乏力；欧元/美元低位横盘，底部支持始终未破；美股劲头十足继续冲高上行，并无但却之意；原油横盘多时，还是则机而动。

但还是一句话，敏感时刻，观望为主，让我们静待非农的到来。

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