CMC Markets专栏: 欧元与美指的潜在逆转机会
2015-12-03 10:27:37
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
今日与明日可能会给出货币市场一个转点的潜在机会，这个机会可以从下方两张图中看出些许门道。欧元未必像绝大部分人所预期继续下滑，美元也不是一定会继续走强下去没有边际。
从欧元/美元的日线图中可以看出，近期低位1.0550-1.0570的区间已经逐步形成一个类似平底的形态，表明在此位置有较强的潜在支持，有空头殆尽而多头补进的迹象。
自11月6日至昨日日线图走出一波坡度逐步放缓的下降楔形的形态，有可能在底部支持位置向上突破反转。加之随即震荡指标MACD与Stochastic均在超卖区运行已久，在风险与回报比上，多头会更占优势。但这只是对可能性的判断，对于基本面上是否欧洲央行会做出进一步扩大宽松的决议才是最基本的要素所在。
如果能够筑底反弹，欧元上方潜在的目标可能在1.08-1.09的区间内（黄金分割回荡线23.6%-38.6%）。
而美元指数12月份远期合约的日线图正好与欧元/美元走出基本相反的行情，美指在类似上升楔形的通道中运行已久，目前有多头动能逐步耗尽，空头适机作空的潜在迹象；基本面上虽然美国加息预期强烈，但有可能市场已经对此逐步消化而做出技术形态回调的走势。随即震荡指标也均在超买区域运行良久，空头可能会被一触即发。下方潜在的会调区间可能在96-97左右（黄金分割线回荡线61.8%-50.0%）。
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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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