欧央行保守立场打压市场信心 澳股重挫1.5%
2015-12-04 07:57:08
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
欧洲法兰克福时间12月3日下午2点30分(北京时间晚上9点30分), 欧洲央行行长德拉吉宣布欧洲将进一步扩大其货币宽松力度. 欧元未跌反涨, 急速飙升400余点, 直至北京时间凌晨3点45份, 欧元兑美元汇率由昨日最低点1.0515附近一度涨至1.0957, 涨幅达3.24%. 全球各大股指皆纷纷跳水, 尤其为美股与欧股市场, 道琼斯指数下跌1.62%, 标普指数500下跌1.57, 欧洲斯托克50下跌3.16%, 德指30DAX下跌3.58%.
欧洲与美国各大股指一日走势 (2015年12月3日)
数据来源: 布伦伯格
欧元/美元走势
数据来源: 布伦伯格
市场出现的与基本面相反的走势行情, 主要是由于: 一是风险与回报比例及盈亏比例所影响, 对于欧元的迅速炒底行为所致, 进而引发欧洲股市的下滑; 二是欧央行的扩大宽松力度并没有市场预期之大而出现的空头殆尽, 多头回补的情况.
欧央行行长德拉吉重申了本次扩大宽松政策是围绕着向2%通胀率买进的核心目标, 其内容主要包括五个方面: 一是将存款利息率由-0.2%降为-0.3%, 但保持再融资管理与其边际借贷利率分别保持在0.05%与0.30%不变;二是对于非标准货币政策措施, 将其资产购买的时间进行延长. 将现行的每月600亿欧元资产购买的项目时间延长至2017年底; 三是将资产购买项目的到期本金在投资; 四是在公共购买项目上, 将地区与本地政府纳入到可以发售以欧元为标价的债券资产; 五是继续再融资管理并将全额分配的固定利率投标程序的时限延长3个月, 至少持续到2017年.
有些分析师认为本次欧元大涨是由于欧央行决议并为像许多投资者预期那样力度大, 市场预期其将会对存款利率有更大程度的削减, 并对央行的资产购买金额再次放大. 而德拉吉表示如果有必要, 欧洲央行才将实行进一步的举措.
从政策本身看来, 欧洲央行宽松政策的扩大是欧洲再次大力度刺激经济发展的动作, 而欧元大涨出乎了很多人的意料. 这种基本面与技术形态的反向也许再次说明技术图形对于真实市场的反映更为及时. 虽然我们昨日讨论的欧央行不予行动的观点有偏差, 但在市场动向方面与实际情况基本吻合. 对于投资者来说, 基本面与技术图形的准确结合分析才是全面看市场的重要方法.
而有评论人士也指出, 在美联储预将加息之时刻, 欧元上涨而导致美元会调也许更加利于其在本月实行加息, 因为这将缓解美元国强的压力. 今夜将迎来美国11月份非农就业数据, 市场是否再会出乎意料, 我们拭目以待.
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