CMC Markets专栏:美联储加息在即,美债涨势将终
2015-12-15 08:04:42
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
本周四将迎来市场瞩目已久的美国联邦市场公开委员会议息会议, 在本次会议上委员会成员将讨论并作出决议是否将实行10年以来的第一次加息. 根据布伦伯格对美国债券市场交易情况统计, 美国将在此次会议上加息的机会有76%. 这将对美国国债市场带来直接的冲击, 美国债券市场很有可能因为利息率的提高而由此打开跌势, 尤其为短期国债.
自美国宣布其加息预期后, 迄今为止, 本年度内美国短期与长期国债收益率均有上涨, 其中, 美国一年期国债收益率上涨0.48%至0.67%, 美国2年期国债收益率上涨0.41%至0.96%, 美国10年期国债上涨0.14%至2.23%. 短期债券收益率-6个月国债, 一年期与两年期国债涨幅最大. 这也意味着这些市场面临下跌的风险最强.
澳大利亚最大基金管理与投资公司之一QIC的一个基金经理称因为债券市场有崩塌的风险，使其转向高频交易的外汇市场，认为外汇市场能够更好的反映经济形势与政策变动，相比之下能够带来更大的收益．
美国国债收益率情况
数据来源：布伦伯格
美国债券收益率基准指数走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
昨日，美国国债收益率指数，美国政府机构收益率指数与美国企业债券收益率指数分别上涨0.86%, 0.23%与0.44%. 美国各方面债券市场已经对于利息成本提高的预先反映．从CMC Markets美国国债的盘面上看，美国国债2年期国债的下跌形态最为明显， 其收益率曲线也是相比最为敏感的。
相比之下， 美国长期国债并没有像短期国债显现的跌势那样明显。美国10年期国债收益率是数万亿美元债务成本的导向，同时也是放映长期经济走势的指标。在2010年，美国10年期国债收益率达4.01%。 虽然美联储在本次会议上决定加息基本可以说是势在必行，但由于加息将意味着政府间债务，银行间债务与企业债务成本的提高，任何不适时宜的行动，都有可能将影响蔓延到世界其他经济体。在当今世界经济下，处于债务风险考虑，其加息的进程很可能是循序渐进，不会以激进的步伐来进行。由此，美国长期国债收益率可能不会因此的大幅变动，低收益率仍然可能是中长期的运行趋势。则10年国债与30年国债很可能仍旧是投资组合中的主要成份而在较稳定的空间进行。
美国10年期国债收益率走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
从CMC Markets10年期美国国债的图表上看，10年期国债价格在中长的运行空间将有可能稳定在123.80-131.30的空间。
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