今日，伴随美联储提高联邦基金利率0.25个百分点，香港金融管理局亦将其基准利率提高0.75个百分点至 1.25%，这是香港金融管理局自08年以来第一次上调基准利率。 
 
    基准利率的提高从根本上讲是为抑制经济过热，实行货币紧缩的一项举措，在当前情况下，可以说是货币政策逐步回归正规的步骤之一。今日在美联储加息以后，全球股市未因融资成本提高下跌而反成涨势，有可能是由于美联储示意“循序渐进”加息的鸽派言词所致。那么，香港恒生指数伴随全球股市今日的行情也可能先呈涨势。但香港基准利率的提高将直接影响到银行借贷成本的增加，有可能对房市起到抑制作用，加之国际大宗商品价格仍然低迷，中国经济呈现下行风险的情况下，在一定时期仍将对股市起到抑制作用。 
 
    技术形态上看，恒生指数近期潜在上行阻力可能在22800附近，如果能够突破此位置上行，则进一步的上方阻力位置将可能在24300附近。


 
    周线图上可以看到自11月18日以来，香港恒生指数便运行在下降通道中，目前有望再次上探此下降通道的上轨位置22800附近，这里同时也是保利加通道中轨位置，如果能够成功上破并站稳此位置之上，则上方的进一步上行目标有可能在保利加通道上轨与黄金分割延展线100%左右的位置，这个位置在24300附近。


 
    月线图中可以看出长期的上行趋势已经在8月份大幅下破，在当前经济形势下，股市难以再次回到长期涨势的趋势中，24000点的区间仍然是重要的阻力位置。
 
    另外，恒生指数的走势与中国内陆经济形势大为相关，在中国经济宽松当局下，有可能对其有短期支持。

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