CMC Markets专栏:美消费信心大增，股市上涨
2015-12-30 08:18:09
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：M.Niu 文章类型：转载
昨日, 据美国消费者委员会统计, 12月份美国消费者信心指数录得96.5, 远好于预期值的93.9, 较11月份数据92.6有很大的改善. 报告显示35岁以下的消费者为消费力最强之群体， 其消费力达1月份以来最高水平。同时55岁及以上消费能力有所下降。
劳动力市场改善，美国经济前景向好
美国消费者信心指数的提升，其直接的原因一方面是美元的强势与廉价汽油降低了交通方面的成本, 给消费者采购提供了便利; 另一方面是由于圣诞假日带动消费力大增; 根本上的原因是由于美国经济复苏后的活力逐步显现, 主要表现在美国劳动力市场的改善与居民工资的不断提高.
美国消费者信心指数自2009年以来持续改善
数据来源: forexfactory
基于美国劳动力市场的持续改善，美联储对于经济前景表示有积极的信心， 在本月份实行了自2006年以来的第一次加息，并且预计在2016年实行4次加息，以逐步将货币政策恢复到正常的轨道上来。 根据对布伦伯格57位经济学家的调查，在未来的6个月里美国劳动力市场将会持续改善， 并无下行预期。 同时， 来自其他方面的经济数据也显示积极的迹象，莫西根大学报告显示12月份的消费信心指数为92.6，是7月份以来最高值。
原油反弹引领美国股市全线上涨
昨日美国三大股指全线上涨， 截至北京时间晨时4点钟， 美国道琼斯指数上涨1.17%至17732点；美国标普指数500上涨1.05%至2078点；纳斯达克指数100上涨1.43%至5113点。美股的全线上涨主要受原油价格再度大幅反弹所致， 截至同一时间， 昨日美国纽约商品交易所2月份德克萨斯原油价格上涨2.83%， 1.04美元至37.85美元/桶， 再度几乎与英国布伦特原油价格持平。英国布伦特原油期货价格目前为37.84美元/桶。原油价格的反弹主要是由于美国减少原油库存量而致。
美国原油库存量与价格对比走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
股市的上涨也是对消费信心起到支持作用， 积极的投资回报预期给美国消费者购买力提供另一个心理方面的支持。虽然美联储加息是货币收紧的信号，同时提高了融资成本，但另一方面高回报率使得部分投资者更愿意投资良性资产而获得稳定的长期收益。 积极的方面看，这是美国对于经济过热的制衡措施。
自本月美国实行10年来第一次增加联邦基金率0.25个百分点以来，各方面反映均显稳定。美国10年国债收益率上涨至2.27%；美元指数上涨0.2%，但相对于10个主要的货币小幅回撤0.1%。
美联储加息可能意味着全球经济将逐步恢复到正常的货币政策的轨道中，逐步减量宽松，适度收紧。各国也在逐步调整自身经济货币政策以应对形势变化， 避免金融危机风险，由于时间尚短，是否全球经济可以稳定过渡而温和复苏，我们对2016年的各方面经济数据拭目以待。
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