CMC Markets专栏-短期避险情绪酝酿, 股市回撤?

2015-10-13 06:54:01 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

近日美元对欧元持续走弱, 尤其为昨日日元对美元再次走强, 黄金继续呈现上涨态势, 可以看出市场避险情绪逐步酝酿. 此外, 原油在持续多日的涨势后, 昨日出现顶部回撤现象, 美国得克萨斯原油价格下跌2.19美元, 收盘47.44美元/桶; 英国布伦特原油价格下跌2.36美元,收盘50.29美元/桶. 美元的持续下行与原油的回撤迹象表明投资者风险偏好的减弱, 可能导致股市出现回撤现象.

上周美元与16个主要货币对走弱表现

昨日全球能源性大宗商品均有下行(12/10)

数据来源: 布伦伯格

由于大宗商品价格的下行与对于中国经济的担忧, 各大股指在8月份大幅下行修正.而后原油及乳制品价格的复苏加之美联储出于低通胀的担忧, 取消9月份加息决议, 9月份各大股指出现反弹回调. 时至今日, 中国经济有望回稳, 美联储表示对于国内通胀率的前景有信心, 基本可以保证实现年底加息, 欧洲央行对于进一步的宽松也表示有待观望, 澳纽则在大宗商品价格逐步回稳后暂时保持官方利率不变. 可以看出, 美国将会是引领发达国家经济进入逐步收紧的带头人, 而中国将会是引领新兴市场进入经济发展新模式”消费引导”型经济的典范. 由此看来, 美国股市很有可能很难再继续其持续上行的走势而进入中长期的调整期, 而亚太地区股市如中国与澳洲股市, 也许正在酝酿着新的增长期的到来.

原油出现的些许回撤迹象, 也许酝酿着股市的回撤调整期的到来以为新投资组合作准备 , 以美国三大股指为代表的美国股市技术形态上也均在上行阻力位置呈现上行动能减弱迹象. 在10月份市场可能出现短期的避险投资情绪. 当可以看出的是全球经济出现逐步的复苏好转, 并有可能酝酿着新格局的出现.

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