CMC Markets专栏:澳币承压,潜在空头目标何在?
2015-12-29 08:35:56
来源：CMC Markets
编辑：S.Li 文章类型：转载
由于大宗商品又呈下行态势，澳币继续承压下行。基本面上主要原因有三：一是美联储加息，使得美元有继续走强迹象；二是大宗商品如原油、黄金等价格再次下滑，使得以能源出口为主的澳洲本国货币有继续贬值需求；三是中国进口需求减少给澳大利亚本国经济施压，澳联储有再次降低官方利率的预期。
技术形态上，昨日澳币/美元的日线图上已经呈现出下行的迹象。下放的短期回撤位置可能在0.7145附近。而周线图上显示，澳币对美元很肯能再次挑战前低位置0.6900左右。如果突破此位置继续下行，则长期潜在空头目标可能在0.6120附近。
日线图上看昨日在近期高点0.7280附近收顶部小阴柱，并且这个位置是上行阻力黄金分割线23.6%回荡线附近位置。及有可能在此位置开始回撤下行，下放的第一个潜在的支持位置，可能在上升趋势线下轨附近0.7145左右。
周线图上显示澳币/美元在一个长期的楔形通道整理中运行，如今将有可能再次在楔形通道上轨附近遇阻力下行，结合基本面次货币对有可能突破楔形整理下行的机会较大，如果下破潜在的支撑位置0.7100，则有再次挑战前低0.6900附近的可能。2016年美联储有可能实行4次逐步增加联邦基金利率，如果澳联储受国际形势引向再次降息，则澳币/美元有可能会下探0.6120附近。
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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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