CMC Markets专栏-纽币与澳币潜在技术形态反弹
2015-08-18 12:11:42
来源:CMC Markets
编辑:Mary 作者:Tina Teng 文章类型:转载
自从去年新西兰经理约翰.基暗示纽币对美元合理的汇率应该为0.65之后,投资者似乎便对0.65的价位形成了心理的买入目标。而从技术图形上看,纽币确实在近日逐渐走出一波近似抄底反弹的形态。天图上看,直到7月28日突破上行前,纽币自四月份一直在下行通道中运行。另外可以看到,纽币经历了三轮对于底部0.65附近支持位置测试,分别是7月17日,8月5日与8月12日。此位置的支持已经被市场多次确认,纽币对美元潜在可能会出现一波强有力的上涨。 上方的第一阻力位置仍然是连续多日并未被突破的0.6640附近,结合纽币天图技术指标来看,MACD与Stoch均出现明显的牛背离多头信号,我们说这一位置能够被突破的可能性很大。多头的下一个获利的潜在目标将在0.6783附近,这是自4月份高点向下拉伸黄金分割线反弹回荡线23.6%附近的位置。

今日澳联储公布的8月4日会议内容与市场预期并无新意,表示澳币的低汇率是支持经济的关键,这并不足以使得澳币继续大幅下行。技术图形上看,澳币天图与纽币异曲同工,同样是在下降楔形中整理下行多日后出现突破反转的迹象,一般教科书层面的定义上来讲,下降楔形的后市形态为向上突破。澳币/美元在近日底部0.7230附近的支持位置经历过两次测试,如今在楔形上轨附近再次受到支持有望整理上行。首要的潜在阻力位置可能将在黄金分割线反弹回荡线23.6%附近的位置0.7450附近。如果顺利突破此位置,澳币有望向上进一步测试阻力位置将有可能在黄金分割线38.2%回荡线0.7580附近。

作者:Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管
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