CMC Markets专栏-纽币与澳币会跌到何时？‏

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2015-09-08 13:45:28 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

纽币与澳币像两个同命相怜的兄弟，自5月份以来一路下行，连续数月毫无转机之际，基本面上主要受美国加息，中国经济放缓，大宗商品价格下行所致。澳联储与新西兰央行纷纷示意有继续下调利率的预期，尤其是新西兰央行在本周四的会议上极有可能将官方利率再下调25个百分点。那么纽币与澳币的下跌态势，何时能休？从技术形态上看来，纽币短期内仍然有下跌的空间，澳币正运行在支持位置附近。则澳币短期内很有可能相对纽币较强。

纽币/美元

纽币对美元的月线图上看，很明显能够看出下方支持位持有可能在黄金分割延展线的100%附近0.6090。距离现在的价格还有近200点的空间。日内反弹空间有可能在0.6300-0.6330的区间。

澳币/美元

澳币形态上比纽币稍有强势，这主要是由于澳币短期内的下跌空间已经有限，目前在支持位置运行。日线图中可以看到，澳币似乎已经跌破下降趋势线，如今反弹试探趋势线底部位置，暗示此突破可能是假突破。如果日内能够成功会调至趋势线内，则此货币对很可能继续其下降通道中运行。其短期的潜在反弹价位有可能在黄金分割线23.6%回荡线0.7200附近。



从月线图上看，澳币/美元在黄金分割延展线61.8%回荡线附近受到支持，如果此位置能够支持反弹，则上方潜在目标仍旧为0.7200附近（黄金分割延展线50.0%）。

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作者：Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管

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