CMC Markets专栏: 欧元或将寻机制胜美元

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2015-09-25 15:53:40 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

也许最近绝大多数投资者都将目光聚焦在美国加息与中国货币贬值的抗衡中,  日前欧洲央行行长德拉吉的一番讲话给出一个警示, 欧元区经济复苏有望, 欧洲仍然是不可忽视的经济体之一. 欧洲央行行长德拉吉在讲话中称欧洲进一步的刺激经济宽松政策有待对经济形势的观望再做作决策, 暗示了欧元区有可能逐步减缓其QE的步伐. 昨日欧洲央行公布的LTRO 长期再融资资金供给量仅为155亿欧元,远低于预期503亿欧元, 这是否说明欧元区将收紧货币流动性而导致欧元走强? 这个可能性较大.

基本面数据方面也有支持欧元强势的利好消息, 德国9月份IFO商业气候调查录得108.5, 远好于预期107.8; 美国8月份耐用品订单出现0增长, 差于预期值0.2%.

技术图形上来看, 短期形态日线图上显示, 欧元/美元在上升趋势线上缓慢上行, 很可能进一步下探保利加通道下轨与上升趋势线重合的位置, 潜在区间在1.1050-1.1080的区间. 此位置是短期的较强支持位置, 如果支持成功, 欧元可能将继续在三角区域内运行,上方潜在阻力位置在1.1260附近.

长期形态上, 月线图显示欧元/美元已经在长期的底部整理行情中运行已久, 自从4月份欧元出现具有代表性的底部反转形态以后, 随后4个月以内在1.0800-1.1460的区间进行整理, 9月份欧元再次从通道顶部开始向下的整理形态运行.  欧元很可能再次经过整理后筑底成功上行.

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