CMC Markets专栏: 美国低零售数据催化美元下行

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2015-10-15 07:21:29 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：向阳 文章类型：转载

由于对于低通胀的担忧美联储对于加息始终不决，美元走弱的迹象已经持续多日，昨日美国9月份生产者价格指数PPI与零售数据均远差于预期，美元再次大幅下行，可以说真正催化了美元的弱势下行之旅。

美国9月份生产价格指数下跌0.5个百分点，录得-0.5%；核心零售数据出现负增长，录得-0.3%，均创自3月份以来新低；其中，核心零售数据（-0.3%）是居民消费构成国民生产总值的主要部分。非核心零售数据（除机动车、汽油、建筑材料与食品服务类）增长仅为0.1%，差于预期0.2%。生产价格指数的下滑仍然主要受能源类产品价格影响，能源类价格指数整体下滑5.9%。根据路透社消息，美国商务部显示的企业库存量在8月份仍然没有发生变化。摩根大通下调美国第三季度GDP至1%。美国沃尔玛公司发出预警称由于美元强势，全年销售将表现平平，美国股市昨日出现下滑。

昨日的美国数据可以说是美元开始下行的催化剂，由于油价低迷与美元强势影响，美国始终无法摆脱低通胀率的状态，使得投资者对于美国今年加息的预期近乎失去信心。美元指数昨日再次下滑，由最高94.78跌至93.95；其他主要货币对均有大幅上涨，欧元/美元上涨100余点，目前运行于1.1481附近；美元/日元出现9月3日以来最大幅度下滑，下跌近100点，现行于118.75附近；英镑/美元上涨近230点，涨幅1.49%。

美元指数走势与各主要货币对汇率

数据来源：布伦伯格

虽然美联储一直表示年度内加息仍在进程中，然而表现不良的经济数据使得市场对其表示怀疑。货币市场在本月上旬经过短暂调整后，终于在昨日走出突破性的行情，很有可能是美元开始下行的真正开始。

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