CMC Markets专栏: 从美日走势看美元‏

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2015-10-29 12:42:21 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

今日美联储在议息会议上表示有可能在12月份加息后，美元大涨。上午的文章中提到，美元的继续走强未必利好美国现行经济形势，而相比于欧洲与日本的现状，美国依旧占明显优势。日本央行在周五即将发布新闻发布会对其未来货币政策走向给出导向，据路透社消息，由于日本国内就业市场收紧，日本有可能需要进一步加大财政宽松力度，但短期之内并不会做出行动，同时会对美国加息的事态进行关注。也许这场货币战争至少要等到12月份才见分晓。

美元/日元技术形态

从美元对日元的日线图盘面看来，美日冲高最高触及121.25而后回撤，现行于121.70附近。美元/日元始终未突破横盘整理的区间，如今再次在横盘顶部受阻或有下行倾向。下放的潜在支持位置仍可能在通道下轨附近的118.70附近。

而月线图显示美元对日元顶部仍显阻力较强，而且有潜在的头部形态，如果美国仍旧迟迟无法加息，经过区间整理后，美日有可能做出头部并下行。能够支持这一观点的另一技术指标是在使用黄金分割延展线（如下图）后，上方100.0%回荡线的位置正是现在价格难以突破的阻力位置，而月线图上技术指标也均在超买区域运行已久，也是潜在空头的另一信号。如果顶部形成则下方一个长期的潜在空头目标将有可能在110.60附近。

整体上看，美元继续大幅走强的可能性不是很大，在12月份以前可能仍然持续其高位盘整形态。而2016年是否会迎来美元下行还需要对各国未来经济走势而定。

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