CMC Markets专栏:澳币筑底有望 上方潜在空间何在?
基本面上,这两日与澳大利亚相关的经济数据皆报喜讯,澳大利亚第三季度企业经营管理利润额增长1.3%, 私营部分澳大利亚10月份建筑许可量增长3.9%,虽然第三季度进出口额度赤字程度大于预期,录得-181亿澳元,但数据较第二季度赤字205亿有所好转。基于数据向好,就业回暖的形式,澳联储昨日将官方利率保持在2%不变。而今日公布的澳洲第三季度GDP录得0.9%,好于预期0.2个百分点,远超前值0.3%。给予了澳洲经济更大的信心。
另外,中国方面的消息也给予了澳币积极影响,一是人民币被批准加入国际储备货币,给美元带来压力,间接助长非美元货币;二是昨日录得的中国11月份财新制造业PMI录得48.6,好于预期48.3。
在昨日写纽币的时候,澳币实际也是迅速冲涨,昨日对美元汇率涨幅达1.33%,收盘0.7323。技术形态上澳币短期在此位置由潜在的阻力回调可能,短期下方潜在支持位置可能在0.7250附近;但大趋势依然是涨势较强,多头的潜在目标首看0.7390, 然后是0.7430。只有能够顺利上破并站稳在0.7430以上,才有可能顺利筑底再次上行。
日线图中显示澳币/美元在保利加通道上轨附近受阻有潜在回调的可能,下方的短期潜在支持可能在0.7250附近,短期上行潜在目标在0.7390附近(黄金分割回荡线38.2%)。

月线图中澳币兑美元有突破下降楔形的迹象,如果突破成功,则可能筑底成功,打开上行空间。并且技术指标MACD与Stochastic均显超卖信号。

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