CMC Markets专栏: 新西兰央行降,纽币未跌反涨!
2015-12-10 06:26:17
来源:CMC Markets
编辑:Mary 文章类型:转载

新西兰上午时间9点钟(北京时间凌晨4点钟), 新西兰央行将其官方利率(OCR)下调0.25个百分点至2.5%. 决议公布后, 纽币未跌反涨, 截至NZT 10点18分, 纽币/美元由最低0.6579上涨160余点至0.6745. 这是我们通常所说的”买事实”的情况, 主要是由于此次降息是绝大部分投资者的预料之中, 交易者对于风险与利润回报率的考量而进行的买涨行为所致.
议息会议内容
议息会议内容中,新西兰央行行长维拉提到,全球的经济增长低于一般水平,通胀率低位运行,新兴市场特别是中国经济增长显示放缓与下行风险。市场也同时关注美国货币政策的收紧进程,货币政策与经济现状背离的前景。2015年以来,由于国际贸易额下降的影响,新西兰经济增长放缓。 加之移民人数的增长使得失业率与闲置生产力增加,也是影响经济增长的另一个重要因素。出口价格的回升与国内需求的反弹有望在下一个年度实现。


新西兰房市通胀率持续高位运行,存在金融面不稳定风险。但随之居住房屋的建造增加与近期税收与借贷与价值比(LVR)的调整措施,有望将房价减压。
目前,新西兰消费物价指数(CPI)低于1%-3%的区间,主要是由于早些时间纽币的强势与原油价格的下滑,自2014年中期以来全球油价下跌65%。
乳制品方面仍然面临风险,目前的尼诺现象可能导致干旱而影响乳品产出。
鉴于多方面的不确定性,货币政策措施需要适合经济现状,依旧围绕通货膨胀率为目标,并将密切关注未来的经济数据。
行长维拉答记者问
随后,新西兰央行行长在新闻发布会上回答记者问话。以下是主要摘要:
货币政策与通胀率目标
货币政策有时并不能有效提高通胀率,特别是在各国大量负债的情况下,正如现在美国,英国等国的情况;
对于移民的看法
移民对于新西兰的经济起到促进作用,能够增强劳动力市场的生产力水平与消费能力;
新西兰房市
在新西兰房市方面,偿付贷款能力上仍显强势,不会在政策上有变化;
财政政策方面
财政政策也是经济发展角度上的一个重要方面,例如GDP目标。 同时基础设施建设也可以补充生产力的空缺。
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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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