原油价格自去年6月份以来持续大幅下滑，如今价格下滑程度已达61.37%, 8月14日跌至最低41.33美元/桶，创6年以来新低。多头也许对于如此吸引人的价格观望已久。现在是否是逐步出手的好时机？

先抛开基本面不谈，技术形态上看原油似乎开始逐步出现筑底形态。美国得克萨斯原油天图上看，连续三天呈触底反弹形态，是潜在的多头买涨信号，加之技术指标MACD与Stochastic已在超卖区运行多时，多头能量看似已经酝酿已久，尤其是Stochastic与价格形成了完美的牛背离。从月图上看，如果从8月1日高点99.45附近拉一条向下的黄金分割延展线，并以5月1日高点61.77为反弹回荡线位置，则可以看到近日多次测试的低点41左右的位置正是回荡线38.2%左右的位置。多重技术指标表明此位置时潜在的强有力的支持，如果做一个技术形态双底反转的假设，此时很有可能是双底的第二个底部筑底的时期，有经验的交易者应该会选择在这个时间出手逐步建仓买入。买入的区间很可能为38至42之间的价位。上方的潜在多头目标可以先看到46美元，天图黄金分割线回荡线23.6%的位置，然后是38.2%大约在49美元左右的价格。如果假设月图双底形态进一步形成，进一步的多头空间可以看到60美元左右的潜在颈线位置。

 

 
作者：Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管

 

Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.