CMC Markets专栏-原油技术形态上再现潜在买入时机
2015-09-29 14:52:44
来源:CMC Markets
编辑:Mary 文章类型:转载
美国得克萨斯原油在经过8月份的明显涨势后,9月份开始进入长期的调整时期,投资者似乎在等待时机寻找市场信号来选择方向而司机出动。基本面上,美国原油储量在9月17日与9月24日公布的数据上均有所下滑,本周四预期为继续减持50万桶,其预期减持量有所下降。美元的近日呈现逐步下行形态,潜在对原油价格有所支持。然而,中国9月份制造业数据的下滑仍然使投资者对于需求不足之影响心有余悸。
而技术形态上,原油在短期内仍然有可能继续在43美元至45美元的区间窄幅整理,技术形态上,43美元附近是强有力的 支持位置,很可能是原油再次买入的潜在价格区间。
从日线图上看,美油在8月31到9月15日形成三角整理向上突破的形态,然后在9月16日到9月28日形成近似下降楔形整理形态,在楔形底部与保利加通道重合的位置43美元附近,也正是黄金分割23.6%反弹回荡线的位置。如果此位置能够持续形成支持,则美油很可能再次出现一波强有力的上涨。


从月线图上看,8月份得克萨斯原油形成潜在的底部止跌坠形态,加之随即震荡指标Stoch有潜在的超卖区域黄金交叉形成,预示着美原油很可能能够筑底成功,迎来再次强有力的 涨势,长期上方的潜在多头目标有可能在5月份与6月份的高点59美元附近的位置。


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