虽然基本面上一直存在原油产量过剩与需求不足的情况，然而原油价格自8月底以来持续从底部反弹，美国得克萨斯原油从8月份底点37.43美元到目前为止已经反弹超过10美元。尤其在周二成功上破重要阻力位置46.60美元的价格后，一度冲高至49.56美元/桶。昨日出现小幅回调，现运行于48美元附近。
 
从日线图技术图形上看，美油昨日在黄金分割线回荡线50.0%附近的位置50美元附近受阻小幅回调，日内仍然有可能继续回调试探回荡线38.2%附近的位置46美元左右。但日线图上看，美原油已经形成较为标准的上升旗形向上突破的形态，有望继续其上涨的态势，46美元附近将可能是再一次买入原油的潜在价格，如果能够顺利突破阻力位置50美元并站稳在这个价格以上，美原油有望继续向上试探52美元附近的位置。


 
近期消息面背景：在9月份，世界第一大石油产国沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯总统普京进行会谈商讨俄罗斯加入欧派克会员国以来，世界石油产出过构成开始发生细微的变化。沙特与俄罗斯有可能达成协议对生油产量与价格进行控制。而近日俄罗斯开始对叙利亚地区IS的攻打也许也是其争取中东地位的又一举动。美国石油生产商很可能会在这场市场争夺战中失去主要市场份额而被迫减产。



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