CMC Markets专栏: 俄土事件升温大宗商品领涨

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2015-11-25 13:56:42 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

昨日，一架俄罗斯战机在叙利亚边境被土耳其军方击落，俄方称土耳其的行为是“暗箭伤人”，是“恐怖主义的帮凶”，此事件引发中东地区与俄罗斯的关系再度紧张。在事件发生后，土耳其股市大跌超过1.5%，俄罗斯股市下跌近2%。而在近日IS恐怖主义逐步抬头的形势下，西方国家、俄罗斯与IS恐怖主义的国际政治局势更加紧张，可能会导致金融市场避险情绪的逐步升温。

昨日，全球股市均有下滑现象，尤其是欧洲股市跌幅明显，欧洲斯托克指数50下跌1.04%，德指30下滑1.43%，英国富实指数下跌0.45%。与此同时大宗商品如黄金、原油有大幅反弹，黄金自昨日低点上涨近10美元，截至本文撰写时间运行1078美元附近；纽约商品交易所原油期货价格承接前日反弹昨日再度上涨最高触及43.46美元，后于42.65收盘。货币市场方面，美元继续回撤，日元与欧元相对走强，今日开盘欧元对美元再次上涨近30点，目前运行于1.0670附近；美元对日元下滑至122.31附近。

土耳其与俄罗斯事件实际上是近日IS恐怖主义与俄罗斯紧张局势而引发的边缘效应，使得近日国际形势有被逐步激化的可能性。事件后，美国总统奥巴马发言认为，土耳其拥有对自己领土、领空自卫的权利，对于是否与俄罗斯在叙利亚驻军有联系，需要对实际情况确定后再做定夺，“要避免任何形式的激化”。

而实际上，如果国际形势愈演愈烈，欧洲有可能是被受影响最大的国家，欧股市场与欧元都有可能由于全球投资的避险偏好降低而撤离，加之欧洲央行可能实行的再次扩大宽松，欧元再度走低的可能性或将无法避免；美国一向是站在战争之外以避之的态度，则美元与美股则仍旧不会受到直接的影响，但由于美联储加息预期的敏感性，也许美元短期回撤也不可避免，美股深局历史高位未必是近期追涨的好时间。

则再回到大宗商品类来看，由于紧张局势接近中东产油国家领域，有可能影响这些地区的原油生产，加之前日沙特对于干预油市的宣称，原油作为必须能源性资源可能会进一步持续反弹。谈及黄金，则是投资者公认的避险性投资产品，金价亦可能出现大幅反弹。

由此看来，大宗商品价格类黄金、原油有可能会是目前局势的较稳定的投资对象。但国际形势迁移莫测，对于短期现状的预测未必是真正的长期趋势。

技术形态上看，美原油潜在的短期进一步反弹目标将有可能在43美元附近，而黄金有可能继续向上反弹至潜在位置1094-1100美元的区间。

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