今日中国8月份财新制造业采购经理人指数录得47.1, 创自2009年3月份以来新低，低于预期值48.2，差于前值47.8。中国此数据已经连续六个月低于盛衰线50.0. 数据表明中国制造业下滑加速。受数据影响，恒生指数今日开盘跳空下跌174点，跌破重要支持位置22700附近，有望继续下行。 
 
日线图中显示，恒生指数跌破保利加通道下轨位置，此位置也是近日重要的支持位置，形态上看还有进一步的下行空间。月线图显示，恒生指数基本跌破长期的上升趋势线与200天均线，如果由2007年11月份高点至2008年10月1日低点向下拉伸黄金分割线，可以看到下方支持位置将可寻找50.0%回荡线附近，其价格区间应该在21300附近的位置，此位置附近有可能会出现一波反弹，反弹的上方目标可寻找61.8%回荡线附近23800附近。根据月线图指标显示，随机震荡指标MACD及Stochastic均已出现潜在的死叉信号，结合蜡烛图形态可以进一步表明，恒生指数应该还有进一步的下跌空间，如果能够下跌突破21300附近，则下方可看到黄金分割线38.2%附近的18800。近期需要关注的运行空间还是可能在21300-23800的区间进行整理，只有跌破此区间才会打开进一步的下行空间。



作者：Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管


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