CMC专栏：市场喘息之际酝酿新旅程的开始

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2015-08-28 08:22:07 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

最近市场的情形很像是一句古文中所述：强弩之末，失不能穿鲁缟也！美国加息风潮弥漫了近一年的时间，如今也许接近了“强弩之末”的时期。市场经历了一年的消化期后，如今逐步出现反转的迹象。而这支“强弩”最后真正打入靶心的时候也将是此战的尾终之刻，市场此时正在酝酿新一旅程的到来。

昨日全球股市出现了让人欣喜的全盘反弹，美国标普指数500创自2009年以来的两日最大涨幅，中国股市终于摆脱连续5日继续下滑的状况出现利好的反弹。更加能够提振信心的是原油终于给消极的空头市场一个有力的反击，昨日大涨近4美元，涨幅达9.54%，收盘于42.30美元/桶，收盘前最高冲达42.52美元/桶，创6年来最大涨幅。美国昨日第二季度修正GDP录得3.7%，远好于预期值3.2%与前值2.3%。美国GDP逐步回稳到正常增长区间。

数据来源：布伦伯格

需要指出的是，我们并不能忽视这支强弩最后的一击之力。市场很有可能会在最后短期的风波中出现大幅震荡而后“急转直上”的状况。最近美国短期国债价格连续三日下滑，反映了市场对于美国近期加息的预期再次增强。目前对于加息的主要羁绊在于美国国内通货膨胀率的低迷，原油价格的大幅反弹将会是对于这一羁绊的最大利好。美联储将以此为依据对于其货币政策进行调整。投资者应持有大方向的概念同时保持对短期风波的警觉，静心以待新一轮时刻的到来！

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作者：Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管

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