CMC Markets专栏-美股面临潜在下行风险
自上周美联储宣布将联邦基金基准利率保持在0.25%以下不变以后,美国各大股指再次出现下滑迹象,反映了投资者对于美国经济现状的担忧。美国8月份通货膨胀率出现负增长,录得-0.1%,远离2%的通胀目标。能源价格的低迷与中国货币贬值是影响其利息决议的主要因素。 美股自8月份急速下滑后始终无法出现具有说服力的反弹,从技术形态看来,美国三大股指,道琼斯指数,美国标普500与纳斯达克均呈现潜在再次下滑风险。
以道指技术图形为例,其面临进一步下行风险,潜在空头目标可能在15500附近,然后是13700附近。
道指的日线图与周线图上均显示潜在的空头信号,日线图中道指在上周四收近似止升锤的形态,周五收一条柱体较长的阴柱,连续两日出现下滑。尤其在周线图中可以看到上周基本形成较标准的顶部十字星形态,进一步支持潜在的空头走势。从月线图上看,MACD及stoch均出现由超买区下行穿破的形态,形成潜在的死叉。首个下行目标很可能在15500附近(黄金分割线23.6%),如果能够突破下跌则会进一步挑战下方13700附近(黄金分割线38.2%)的位置。


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