CMC Markets专栏-澳指真正反弹还需静待时机‏

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2015-10-02 08:05:59 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Mary 文章类型：转载

近日随大宗商品价格，尤其是铁矿石价格的反弹征兆，澳大利亚经济出现回暖迹象，澳大利亚官方机构称铁矿石价格有望由此反弹。此外，澳大利亚最大的贸易合作伙伴中国今日公布官方9月份制造业采购经理人指数PMI录得48.9，在连续两月持续下跌以后有所回升。伴随昨日全球股指的全面回暖，澳大利亚指数200也呈现大幅反弹。然而从技术形态上看，澳指的真正技术性反弹还需静待时机，这一波反弹很可能在5145-5175的区间受阻而再次试探支持位置4800-4900附近的空间。

日线图上看，澳指200运行于下降通道中，日内很有可能突破通道上轨位置5100附近，然后继续试探保利加通道上轨与黄金分割线38.2%回荡线附近的空间5145-5175附近。如果在此受阻，澳指200可能会回落到下降通道中继续下行再次试探前低位置4800附近。

从月线图上看，9月份澳指200在长期的上升通道中运行，8月份大幅滑落后，9月份在通道底部附近进行窄幅整理，此位置也是黄金分割线38.2%回荡线支持的位置4800-4900附近的位置。结合随即震荡指标MACD与Stochastic来看，指标仍然显示空头动能较强，澳指200很可能在此位置经过一个中长期的底部整理然后才会出现真正的筑底形态再回稳上行。

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