CMC Markets专栏: IMF发出全球经济风险预警‏

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2015-10-08 08:06:40 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：向阳 文章类型：转载

昨日国际货币基金组织在《全球金融系统稳定报告》中警戒相关机构对其金融系统应加强保护以防范潜在的经济失稳风险，由于美联储正预准备加息，市场潜在的震荡与政策性失误将导致全球经济脱离正确轨道而催生全球股市变卖风险。

银行的高债务比例使得发展中国家经济受其财政压力与资本外流风险。这与2006年美联储第一次加息的情况类似。由于新兴市场持有大量的美元债务，美联储加息会直接影响其还债能力，同时由于持续降息的政策扩大了这些国家大程度的资本外流的风险。尤其为中国目前面临经济向“消费引导增长”转型的挑战。但同时，中国要警惕宽松政策所引起的企业过度债务与银行“无实效贷款”的状况，主要是指银行放出的贷款可能不能得到充分利用以促进经济增长。

连锁反应下，发达国家风险并存，新兴市场的债务偿还能力直接影响到债权国家的经济，如果新兴市场如真出现债务坏账则也可能使得危机重演。同时，发达国家自身的公共与私有部门的债务也是潜在的症结所在，如“欧盟仍然存在的金融体系裂缝”。根据华盛顿基础基金显示，全球债务市场结构性的变化与传统交易者对于服务市场定价的犹豫不决的情况，使得加息会导致资金流动性严重不足。

IMF指出，潜在的债务危机将是全球性质的，这场危机很可能始发于新兴市场，这很可能导致全球资产市场的大幅破坏与突发性市场流动性枯竭。尤其是中国面临其转型期，中国应该逐步收回大量政府发出的资金以抵御风险。中国国务院总理李克强近日也提出：“决不允许财政资金趴在账上呼呼大睡”，进一步强调了盘活存量资金，指出地方资金要用到有实效的地方。如果地方对于资金盘活发挥不了实效作用，政府将收回这些资金以用在实处。

IMF还指出，美国要“清楚与持续”实行其加息进程，同时新兴市场要时刻关注受外币影响最为直接的企业。

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