CMC Markets专栏: 十三五计划刺激牛市再来

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2015-11-05 14:20:24 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：M.Zhu 文章类型：转载

与美、欧股市呈明显对照行情，昨日中国股市大涨，创自8月份以来的新高。主要受各方面的利好消息刺激，一方面是中国央行行长周小川称“深港通将与年内开通”，加之十三五计划的出台使得市场信心激增，中国股市又迎来久未见的牛市到来，昨日中国沪指大涨4.31%，其中金融股领涨。

伴随内陆牛市，香港恒生指数，香港中国H股，中国A股50远期也在出现大幅上行。盘面上中国各股仍有较大的上行空间，香港恒生指数有望上行挑战24300点；香港中国H股将可能有望上行至11500点；中国A股50已经涨过历史高位，有望继续上行挑战10800点。

由于美联储耶伦昨日在其证词中表示美国经济良好的复苏态势使得12月份加息有更确定的可能性，美股与欧股市场受其影响而下行，这与中国股市的大涨形成了鲜明的反差。而从整体经济形势上看，中国的宽松是经济转型期的宽松，是进一步扩大经济市场化的标志性举措。央行在10月份再次实行降息、将准的措施后，意味着释放出7千亿到8千亿人民币的资金流动量。虽然市场高呼“中国经济增长下行风险”与“潜在债务危机”等种种风险预警，但中国强大的经济基地是不可忽视的。当经济增长模式逐步转向“消费引导型”后，将有可能带来新的消费增长模式，而金融业与服务业将有可能成为未来主要的支撑板块。

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